Archive for janeiro \31\+00:00 2012

Structural Shift in U.S. Economy

janeiro 31, 2012

Mais um post (28/01/2012) do blog do Prof. Mark Perry (, mostrando a forte recuperação da economia dos EUA:

Structural Shift in U.S. Economy


An earlier version of the chart above was featured on CD in November and it generated a lot interest and 133 comments, so I’m providing an update here based on employment and real GDP data through 2011.  More than any single chart, I think this one really helps to accurately capture graphically the current state of the U.S. economy, although Scott Grannis has another GDP graph that also helps us understand today’s economic situation.

1. Measured by real output (GDP), the U.S. economy has made a complete recovery from the 2007-2009 recession.  Real output in Q4 of 2011 was higher than the 2007 Q4 level when the recession started by 0.72%.

2. While real output has completely recovered to above pre-recession levels, U.S. civilian employment at 140.56 million is still 5.7 million jobs (and 3.9%) below the 2007 peak of 146.27 million jobs, and that translates into the ongoing and persistent “jobless recovery.”

3. The recovery of real output to historical highs with 3.9% fewer employees has also translated into record-level corporate profits, which are now 40% above pre-recession levels.

4. The recovery of both output and profits to above 2007 levels with 5.7 million fewer workers could explain the sluggish job growth that will probably continue for several more years.  If companies can produce more output now than in 2007 with fewer workers and record profits, where’s the incentive to hire more workers?

The Great Recession stimulated huge productivity and efficiency gains as companies shed marginal workers and learned how to do “more with less (fewer workers).”  The surge in productivity over the last few years may be unprecedented in recent history and may be responsible for a “structural shift” in the U.S. economy that will have long-lasting effects, e.g. an extended period of time with a jobless rate above 7%.

Como estará a economia brasileira em 2012? E nossas empresas?

janeiro 30, 2012

Caríssimos leitores: está voltando ao ar no dia de hoje a newsletter da Creativante, cujo título é “Como estará a economia brasileira em 2012? E nossas empresas?“, e que você pode acessar aqui, ou no seu formato pdf, aqui!

A Revolution in Higher Education is Underway

janeiro 26, 2012

Post de ontem do blog do Prof. Marl Perry (


A Revolution in Higher Education is Underway


A few days ago, I reported on how MITx could revolutionize higher education by offering free online classes along with a new benefit: credentials. Beginning this spring, students will be able to take free, online courses from MIT, and if they prove they’ve learned the materi­al through an assessment, they can pay a fee and receive a certificate from MITx.

In a related recent development, Felix Salmon and The Chronicle of Higher Education report this week that Stanford University professor Sebastian Thrun, who taught an online artificial intelligence course to more than 160,000 students in the fall through Stanford, has given up his tenured teaching position there to go full-time with Udacity, a new start-up firm he co-founded that offers low-cost online classes.

From The Chronicle:

“Mr. Thrun told the crowd at the Digital–Life–Design conference in Munich, Germany that his move was motivated in part by teaching practices that evolved too slowly to be effective. During the era when universities were born, “the lecture was the most effective way to convey information. We had the industrialization, we had the invention of celluloid, of digitial media, and, miraculously, professors today teach exactly the same way they taught a thousand years ago,” he said.

He concluded by telling the crowd that he couldn’t continue teaching in a traditional setting. “Having done this, I can’t teach at Stanford again,” he said.

One of Udacity’s first offerings will be a seven-week course called “Building a Search Engine.” It will be taught by David Evans, an associate professor of computer science at the University of Virginia and a Udacity partner. Mr. Thrun said it is designed to teach students with no prior programming experience how to build a search engine like Google. He hopes 500,000 students will enroll.

Teaching the course at Stanford, Mr. Thrun said, showed him the potential of digital education, which turned out to be a drug that he could not ignore.

“I feel like there’s a red pill and a blue pill,” he said. “And you can take the blue pill and go back to your classroom and lecture your 20 students. But I’ve taken the red pill, and I’ve seen Wonderland.”

Watch his talk here.  More evidence that the revolution in higher education in underway.

Economia da Defesa na UFPE

janeiro 25, 2012

Neste primeiro semestre de 2012 estaremos dando o primeiro Curso de Economia da Defesa da UFPE.

A notícia saiu hoje no informativo da UFPE (ver boletim abaixo). Infelizmente saiu com um erro, uma vez que, ao contrário do noticiado, as aulas só começam no dia 27/02 (e não 21/02, como informado no boletim abaixo).

A ementa do curso pode ser baixada aqui!


UFPE abre inscrições para primeiro curso de Economia da Defesa


O Departamento de Economia da UFPE promoverá o primeiro curso de Economia da Defesa, a partir do dia 21 de fevereiro. O curso será voltado para alunos de graduação interessados no assunto e acontecerá nas segundas-feiras das 18h50 às 20h30 e nas quartas das 20h30 às 22h.O objetivo do curso é mostrar os principais mecanismos e instituições relacionados à economia da defesa das nações em geral e mais especificamente do Brasil e sua influência no desenvolvimento econômico mundial.

Entre os conteúdos abordados estão Economia da defesa e segurança internacional, Gastos militares mundiais, Demanda por gastos militares, Gastos em defesa e crescimento econômico, Base industrial e de serviços militar, Economia do P&D militar, Economia do comércio de armas, Economia do comércio de armas, Economia política da manutenção da paz, Economia da defesa do Brasil e Estratégia nacional de defesa.

Os interessados podem se inscrever gratuitamente através do e-mail do professor José Carlos Cavalcanti, organizador do curso, ou de seu blog. As aulas serão realizadas no próprio Departamento de Economia.

Mais informações
Professor José Carlos Cavalcanti

Why Obama announced Pentagon budget cuts this week?

janeiro 6, 2012

O Presidente Barack Obama anunciou esta semana que os EUA irão cortar os gastos de defesa do Pentágono (o quartel geral do Departmento de Defesa americano) em centenas de bilhões de dólares nos próximos 10 anos.

Qual terá sido o argumento por trás destes cortes, sabendo-se que os EUA são a nação que mais gasta em defesa?

Uma explicação pode estar aqui!


janeiro 5, 2012

Post do blog do Prof. Mark Perry no dia 01/01/2012 (!

Enquanto a desindustrialização é um fenômeno mundial, aqui no Brasil ainda tem gente (tanto em governo quanto fora dele) achando que pode reverter tal fenômeno!


“Decline of Manufacturing” is Global Phenomenon: And Yet the World Is Much Better Off Because of It


The chart above shows manufacturing output as a share of GDP, for both the “world less the U.S.” and the U.S. alone, using United Nations data for GDP and its components at current prices in U.S. dollars from 1970 to 2010. We hear all the time from Donald Trump and others about the “decline of U.S. manufacturing,” about how nothing is made here any more, and how everything that used to be made here is now made in China and other low wage countries.  An underlying assumption of most of those claims is that if the manufacturing base is shrinking in the U.S. (the “hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing”), that there is an offsetting manufacturing gain that is captured elsewhere in the world, as manufacturing output supposedly shifts from the U.S. to other countries, with world manufacturing remaining constant.

In reality, the chart above shows that the decline in U.S. manufacturing as share of GDP between 1970 and 2010 is really a global phenomenon as the entire world becomes increasingly a service-based economy.  The manufacturing/GDP ratio in the U.S. fell from 24% to 13% between 1970 and 2010, while the world ratio fell at almost the same rate, from 27% to 16%.

As a share of GDP, manufacturing has declined in most countries since the 1970s. A few examples: Australia’s manufacturing/GDP ratio went from 22% in 1970 to 9.3% in 2010, Brazil’s ratio went from 24.5% to 13.5%, Canada’s from 19% to 10.5%, Germany’s from 31.5% to 18.7%, and Japan’s from 35% to 20%.

Bottom Line: When we hear claims that “nothing is made here anymore,” it’s not really the case that somebody else is making the stuff Americans used to make as it is the case that we (and others around the world) just don’t manufacture as much “stuff” any more in relation to the growing levels of national income, which the graph above clearly shows.

The main reason that the manufacturing/GDP ratio has declined in the U.S. and around the world is that productivity gains for durable goods have significantly lowered the price of those goods relative to: a) the prices of services, and b) household incomes, as I pointed out in this CD post on the “miracle of manufacturing.” In other words, the declining manufacturing/GDP ratio reflects declining prices for manufacturing goods, which is a sign of economic progress, not regress.  The standard of living around the world today, along with global wealth and prosperity, are all much, much higher today with manufacturing representing 16% of total world output (including the U.S.) compared to 1970, when it was almost twice as high at almost 27%. And for that progress, we should celebrate, not complain about the “decline of manufacturing.”

Os números de 2011 deste blog

janeiro 1, 2012

Os duendes de estatísticas do prepararam um relatório para o ano de 2011 deste blog.

Aqui está um resumo:

A sala de concertos da Ópera de Sydney tem uma capacidade de 2.700 pessoas. Este blog foi visitado cerca de 52.000 vezes em 2011. Se fosse a sala de concertos, eram precisos 19 concertos egostados para sentar essas pessoas todas.

Clique aqui para ver o relatório completo

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