Archive for junho \27\UTC 2011

Economia brasileira: vai bem ou vai mal?

junho 27, 2011

Já está no ar a nova newsletter da Creativante, intitulada “Economia brasileira: vai bem ou vai mal?”,  que você pode acessar aqui!

How About Europe Learning from Mississippi?

junho 21, 2011

Nesta o Prof. Paul Krugman dançou (post do blog do Prof. Mark Perry, http://mjperry.blogspot.com) de sábado, 18/06)!

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How About Europe Learning from Mississippi?

 

In a New York Times editorial last year titled “Learning from Europe” Paul Krugman wrote:

“The story you hear all the time about Europe — of a stagnant economy in which high taxes and generous social benefits have undermined incentives, stalling growth and innovation — bears little resemblance to the surprisingly positive facts. The real lesson from Europe is actually the opposite of what conservatives claim: Europe is an economic success, and that success shows that social democracy works. The European economy works; it grows; it’s as dynamic, all in all, as our own.”

The BEA recently released data for the amount of GDP produced by U.S. states in 2010 , which allows for a updated comparison of output per capita in U.S. states (Note: Per-capita GDP is provided by the BEA in 2005 dollars, and those amounts have been adjusted to 2010 dollars for comparison to other countries in 2010) to European countries (and Japan and Canada), see table below (international countries are adjusted for PPP).  Key findings:

1.The European Union as a group ($32,700 GDP (PPP) per capita in 2010) ranks below America’s poorest state, Mississippi ($32,764).

2. Even relatively wealthy (by European standards) Switzerland would rank #32 as a U.S. state, behind Georgia.  The countries of Belgium and Germany would rank even lower at #46 and #47, and the U.K., Finland, and France would be close to the bottom of American states, below #48 South Carolina.

3. Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal all rank below America’s poorest state (Mississippi) for GDP per capita.

MP: Paul Krugman’s assessment of Europe’s economic success bears little resemblance to the surprisingly negative facts, which are actually the opposite of what Krugman claims.  With a few exceptions, the amount of economic output produced per person would rank most European countries among America’s poorest states.  And even America’s poorest states like Mississippi and West Virginia would rank above average among the countries of Europe.  When it comes to economic success, the data suggest that Europe has a lot more to learn from the U.S. than vice-versa.

 GDP per Capita: U.S. States vs. Europe, Japan and Canada, 2010
 Rank   GDP per Capita, 2010
District of Columbia $168,327
Luxembourg $81,383
1 Alaska $70,814
2 Delaware $69,880
3 Wyoming $68,162
4 Connecticut $66,022
5 New York $59,596
6 Massachusetts $58,339
7 New Jersey $55,715
8 Virginia $53,113
9 Colorado $52,205
Norway $52,013
10 California $51,905
11 North Dakota $51,882
12 Minnesota $51,238
13 Maryland $51,224
14 Washington $50,912
15 Illinois $50,581
16 South Dakota $49,741
17 Texas $49,119
18 Nebraska $48,708
19 Hawaii $48,697
20 Oregon $48,590
21 Louisiana $48,068
22 Iowa $46,791
23 Rhode Island $46,688
24 New Hampshire $46,295
25 Nevada $46,136
26 Kansas $44,621
27 North Carolina $44,568
28 Pennsylvania $44,471
29 Wisconsin $43,446
30 Indiana $42,266
31 Georgia $41,720
Switzerland $41,663
32 Utah $41,528
33 Vermont $41,290
34 Ohio $41,240
Netherlands $40,765
35 Missouri $40,515
36 Tennessee $40,239
37 Florida $39,988
38 Arizona $39,910
39 Oklahoma $39,724
Austria $39,634
40 New Mexico $39,475
Canada $39,057
41 Michigan $38,959
42 Maine $38,623
Ireland $38,550
Sweden $38,031
43 Kentucky $37,209
Denmark $36,450
44 Idaho $36,113
Belgium $36,100
Germany $36,033
45 Alabama $36,002
46 Montana $35,895
47 Arkansas $35,161
48 South Carolina $35,034
United Kingdom $34,920
Finland $34,585
France $34,077
Japan $33,805
49 West Virginia $33,738
50 Mississippi $32,764
European Union $32,700
Spain $29,742
Israel $29,531
Italy $29,392
Greece $28,434
Portugal $23,223

Everything as a Service- EaaS (Tudo como um Serviço)?

junho 20, 2011

A nova newsletter da Creativante está no ar! Ela se intitula “Everything as a Service- EaaS (Tudo como um Serviço)?“, e você pode acessar aqui!

Nokia wins rare victory as Apple settles legal row

junho 14, 2011

Um dia depois que publicamos uma newsletter da Creativante sobre problemas com a Nokia, boas notícias (de hoje da reuters.com) sobre a mesma!

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Nokia wins rare victory as Apple settles legal row

By Tarmo Virki, European Technology Correspondent

HELSINKI | Tue Jun 14, 2011 5:45am EDT

HELSINKI (Reuters) – Nokia notched up a rare victory against arch-rival Apple as the iPhone maker agreed to settle a long-running row over patents.

Nokia said on Tuesday the deal would boost second-quarter earnings, having warned at the end of May that it would miss targets.

Shares in the struggling cellphone maker rose 3 percent. Analysts welcomed the news and said

it would help Nokia concentrate on core business at a time when it faces huge challenges.

“This is the first positive news from Nokia for a long time. They can both focus on their businesses now, and the dispute was settled to Nokia’s advantage,” said Mikael Rautanen, analyst at Inderes in Helsinki.

Analysts said Nokia could be estimated to get between 1 and 2 percent of iPhone revenues, which are seen at around $43 billion this year according to a Reuters poll.

The figures demonstrate that while Nokia may have won a legal victory, it still faces a daunting task to catch up with Apple in the high end of the smartphone market, where it has fallen behind both Apple’s iPhone and Google Inc’s Android devices.

Earlier this week Nomura forecast Nokia would lose its position as the world’s largest smartphone maker this quarter to Samsung Electronics and that Apple would surpass it next quarter.

Apple and Nokia have been locked in a legal tussle since October 2009, when Nokia sued Apple in the United States, arguing the iPhone-maker was getting a “free ride” on technologies patented by Nokia.

“The deal structure — a one-time payment as well as running royalties — suggests a fairly good outcome for Nokia,” said Florian Mueller, independent specialist and blogger on patent battles.

“Maybe Nokia could have continued to play hardball and got an even better deal if it didn’t face the challenges it undoubtedly has. But this looks like a fairly important victory,” Mueller said.

An Apple spokesman confirmed the deal on Tuesday.

“We’re glad to put this behind us and get back to focusing on our respective businesses,” he said.

By 0914 GMT, Nokia shares were up 3.3 percent in Helsinki. Apple shares traded in Frankfurt were up 0.4 percent in low volumes.

APPLE PAYMENTS

Nokia said the deal — which settles all litigation between the two and means both sides will withdraw complaints to the U.S. International Trade Commission — would boost its second-quarter earnings, but said details were confidential.

“It is clear that Apple will be the payer here, and the sums will be significant,” said Swedbank analyst Jari Honko.

Nokia warned on second quarter sales and profits at the end of May, abandoning hope of meeting key targets just weeks after setting them and raising questions over whether new CEO Stephen Elop can deliver on the turnaround he promised.

Following the warning analysts have slashed their estimates and expect the firm to report losses this quarter and next.

MORE BATTLES AHEAD

Legal battles have become increasingly common in the cellphone industry since Apple and Google carved out a large chunk of the lucrative and quickly expanding smartphone market at the expense of older players.

Nokia, which has said it will be more aggressive in licensing its patents, flagged further legal battles were ahead.

“This settlement …. enables us to focus on further licensing opportunities in the mobile communications market,” CEO Elop said in a statement.

Analysts said makers of Google Android phones were the next likely target.

“Emerging victorious from such a war, Nokia is in a strong position to collect royalties from other industry players, particularly from makers of Android-based devices,” Mueller said.

However, analysts warned the company still had a long way to go toward any recovery.

“This (the Apple deal) could cause the stock to have a bit of a relief rally today, but does very little to address the stark reality that the company is facing,” said Richard Windsor, analyst at Nomura.

“Hence we see no reason to remain anything other than negative on the stock.”

Technical analysts said Nokia shares had been in oversold territory since late May and momentum indicators had been signaling that it was ripe for at least a short-term, technical rebound.

The shares are still down about 25 percent since May 30, representing a 5.5 billion-euro wipeout in market capitalization for one of Europe’s biggest technology companies.

(Additional reporting by Jussi Rosendahl in Helsinki, Poornima Gupta in San Francisco, Blaise Robinson in Paris and Dominic Lau in London; Editing by Sophie Walker)

Por quê a Nokia perdeu a confiança dos investidores e consumidores?

junho 13, 2011

Saiu a nova newsletter da Creativante, intitulada “Por quê a Nokia perdeu a confiança dos investidores e consumidores?“,  que você pode acessar aqui!

Estado Ltda. (pesquisa inédita da Revista Época)

junho 11, 2011

A Revista Época publicou esta semana um levantamento inédito sobre o tamanho a influência do Estado na economia brasileira!
Fazia anos eu não via um levantamento tão bom!
É um levantamento inédito que destrincha 675 empresas com participação do governo federal.
Para não assinantes, há um trecho no site: http://revistaepoca.globo.com/Revista/Epoca/0,,EMI240747-15223,00-ESTADO+LTDA+TRECHO.html.
Este levantamento confirma a tese do Capitalismo de Laços que apresentamos em fevereiro na newsletter da Creativante: http://bit.ly/j312q0.
Ou seja, o atual governo (digo, Lula) vendeu (competentemente, em função da fragilidade das oposições) uma imagem de que as privatizações aumentaram a participação da iniciativa privada na economia. Na realidade, o que ocorreu foi exatamente o contrário: aumentou recentemente a participação do Estado na Economia!
Logo, se estamos “entravados”, a origem da questão está ai: muita pata de “elefante” na economia aumentando os custos de transação!
Boa leitura do levantamento!

The Innovation Death Spiral- A Espiral Fatal da Inovação

junho 6, 2011

Saiu a nova newsletter da Creativante, intitulada “The Innovation Death Spiral- A Espiral Fatal da Inovação“, que você pode acessar aqui!

The Ability of the US Economy to Be Productive and Innovative in a Tough World

junho 5, 2011

Incrível! Em 40 anos os EUA se mantêm na mesma posição: produzem pouco mais de 25% de tudo que se produz no mundo!  Post retirado do blog do Prof. Mark Perry (http://mjperry.blogspot.com)!

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The Bullish Case for the U.S. Economy: Our Ability to Be Productive and Innovative in a Tough World

 

From today’s WSJ interview with Robert Doll, Wall Street’s perma-optimist and chief equity strategist for BlackRock, “The Bullish Case for the U.S. Economy“:
“As intriguing in this moment of U.S. pessimism is the 56-year-old uber-investor’s long-term bullishness on American companies and U.S. competitiveness. “You could say we’re the best house in a bad neighborhood,” says the man who has spent 28 years managing money. “We have fewer problems and more solutions than Europe or Japan.”
“Over the next 20 years, the U.S. work force is going to grow by 11%, Europe’s going to fall by five, and Japan’s going to fall by 17. This alone tells me the U.S. has a huge advantage over Europe and a bigger one over Japan for growth,” he says. “And the reason for this is pretty simple. We have higher immigration than both of these, and we make more babies. We have a higher fertility rate. And they are the long-term determinants of population growth and therefore work force growth.”
But can we really win merely by staying ahead of Europe and Japan? So far the answer seems to be yes. People are invariably shocked when Mr. Doll tells them that in 1995 the U.S. produced roughly 25% of the world’s goods and services and in 2010, after 15 years that included a tech bust, a terrorist attack and a housing bust that triggered a financial crisis, the U.S. was still producing that same 25% of global GDP (see chart above).

How is this possible given the rapid rise of China and India? Mr. Doll says the increase in emerging markets’ share of the world economy has come “at the expense of mostly Japan and a bit Europe. The U.S. has held its own, which I think is a statement of our ability to be productive in a tough world.”

But even with all our problems, he says, “I think the entrepreneurial spirit is alive and well in the U.S.” He argues that we are still the source of technological innovation and home to the greatest universities and the most creative businesses. He sees promising advances in health care and alternative energy technologies. By alternative he doesn’t necessarily mean “green” energy, but simply new power sources given that he expects oil prices to keep rising.”

MP: The chart above of world GDP shares (data here) from 1969 to 2010 confirms Mr. Doll’s claim about America’s amazingly stable share of world output, which has remained at about 26% for more than forty years.  As I’ve indicated on the chart, the U.S. share of world GDP in 2010 (26.3%) was exactly the same as in 1975 (26.3%). It’s also interesting to note that: a) the shares of world GDP in 2010 were almost exactly the same for the U.S. (26.3%), the EU-15 (26.4%) and Asia/Oceania (26.6%) and b) the shares of world GDP for Latin America and the Middle East + Africa have remained relatively stable since 1969.

The biggest change over time has been the gradual decline in the EU-15’s share of world GDP from almost 36% in 1969 to less than 27% by 2010, while Asia/Oceania’s share has increased from less than 15% in 1969 to almost 27% in 2010. The fact that America’s share of world GDP has remained constant over time is a testament to how America’s dynamism, resiliency, and culture of innovation and entrepreneurship have enabled us to be “productive in a tough world.”  In contrast, the EU-15’s declining share of the world economy demonstrates the failure of anti-growth, European-style socialism with high taxes and excessive regulations that creates a culture of dependency and entitlement.

What Is Groupon Business Model?

junho 3, 2011

Para meus estudantes de Introdução à Economia, principalmente os que fizeram o trabalho sobre o Groupon (post retirado de http://www.vccircle.com)!

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June 03, 2011, 07:12 AM IST
BY TEAM VCC
What is the Groupon business model? The model is clearly stated in the IPO prospectus.

What is the Groupon business model? The model is clearly stated in the IPO prospectus. We reproduce it here:

The Business Model

“Groupon is a local e-commerce marketplace that connects merchants to consumers by offering goods and services at a discount. Traditionally, local merchants have tried to reach consumers and generate sales through a variety of methods, including the yellow pages, direct mail, newspaper, radio, television and online advertisements and promotions. By bringing the brick and mortar world of local commerce onto the internet, Groupon is creating a new way for local merchants to attract customers and sell goods and services. We provide consumers with savings and help them discover what to do, eat, see and buy in the places where they live and work.

Each day we email our subscribers discounted offers for goods and services that are targeted by location and personal preferences. Consumers access our deals directly through our websites and mobile applications. Our revenue is the purchase price paid by the customer for the Groupon. Our gross profit is the amount of revenue we retain after paying an agreed upon percentage of the purchase price to the featured merchant.

Financial Metrics

Gross profit: Our gross profit is the amount that we retain after paying our merchants an agreed upon percentage of the purchase price to the featured merchant. We believe gross profit is an important indicator for our business because it is a reflection of the value of our service to our merchants. Gross profit is influenced by the mix of deals we offer. For example, gross profit can vary depending on the category of product or service offered in a particular deal. Likewise, gross profit can be adversely impacted by offers that we make for the principal purpose of acquiring new subscribers or establishing our brand and building scale in a new market.

Free cash flow: Free cash flow is cash flow from operations less amounts paid for purchases of property and equipment, including internal-use software and website development. We believe free cash flow is an important indicator for our business because it measures the amount of cash we generate after spending on marketing, wages and benefits, capital expenditures and other items. Free cash flow also reflects changes in working capital. We use free cash flow to conduct and evaluate our business because we believe free cash flow captures the cash flow of our ongoing operations. See “Selected Consolidated Financial and Other Data—Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for further information.

Operating Metrics

Subscribers: We define subscribers as the total number of individuals that have completed registration through a specific date, less individuals who have unsubscribed. To sign up for our service and become a subscriber, an individual provides an email address. We can measure our overall growth in the market as well as our potential revenue opportunity as a function of our total subscriber base. The subscriber base does not take into consideration the activity level of the subscriber with our service, nor does it adjust for multiple or unused accounts. Despite these drawbacks, we believe this metric provides valuable insight about the trajectory and scale of our business. Although the vast majority of our revenue comes from subscribers, we also sell Groupons to customers that purchase as guests and, as such, are not included in our total subscriber number.

Cumulative customers: We define cumulative customers as the total number of unique customers that have purchased Groupons from January 1, 2009 (the first date we began tracking unique customers) through a specific date. We consider this metric to be an important indicator of our business performance as it helps us to understand the purchase rate of our subscribers.

Featured merchants: This metric represents the total number of merchants featured in a given time period. For deals offered on a nationwide basis, we count the national merchant once. For deals offered by national merchants on a local or regional basis, we count the national merchant as a separate merchant in each market in which the deal is offered. We consider this metric to be a good indicator of growth as well as an important measure of the effectiveness of our sales and marketing infrastructure.

Groupons sold: This metric represents the total number of Groupons sold in a given time period. This metric is presented net of Groupons refunded during the same time period. We use this metric to measure our growth and activity level in the aggregate as well as in our individual markets.

Global Internet Traffic Projected to Quadruple by 2015

junho 2, 2011

Novas previsões da Cisco, publicada ontem em http://newsroom.cisco.com!

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Global Internet Traffic Projected to Quadruple by 2015

Cisco Visual Networking Index Projects Network-Connected Devices Will Outnumber People 2 to 1; a Million Minutes of Internet Video to Be Transmitted Per Second

 

Suraj ShettySuraj Shetty, vice president of global service provider marketing, Cisco

SAN JOSE, Calif. – June 1, 2011 – Cisco predicts that the number of network-connected devices will be more than 15 billion, twice the world’s population, by 2015. In the fifth annual Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2010-2015) released today, the company also said the total amount of global Internet traffic will quadruple by 2015 and reach 966 exabytes per year.

The projected increase of Internet traffic between 2014 and 2015 alone is 200 exabytes, which is greater than the total amount of Internet Protocol traffic generated globally in 2010. On the verge of reaching 1 zettabyte, which is equal to a sextillion bytes, or a trillion gigabytes by 2015, global IP traffic growth is driven by four primary factors, according to Cisco. They are:

  1. An increasing number of devices: The proliferation of tablets, mobile phones, connected appliances and other smart machines is driving up the demand for connectivity.  By 2015, there will be nearly 15 billion network connections via devices — including machine-to-machine — and more than two connections for each person on earth.
  2. More Internet users: By 2015, there will be nearly 3 billion Internet users –more than 40 percent of the world’s projected population.
  3. Faster broadband speed: The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase four-fold, from 7 megabits per second in 2010 to 28 Mbps in 2015. The average broadband speed has already doubled within the past year from 3.5 Mbps to 7 Mbps.
  4. More video: By 2015, 1 million video minutes –the equivalent of 674 days –will traverse the Internet every second.

Overview

  • The annual Cisco VNI Forecast was developed to estimate global Internet Protocol traffic growth and trends. Widely used by service providers, regulators, and industry influencers alike, the Cisco VNI Forecast is based on in-depth analysis and modeling of traffic, usage and device data from independent analyst forecasts. Cisco validates its forecast, inputs and methodology with actual traffic data provided voluntarily by global service providers and consumers alike.
  • To help customers learn more and visualize IP traffic growth drivers and trends, Cisco VNI Forecast can provide customized views relevant to customer needs.

Additional Study Highlights

Total Global IP Traffic in “Bytes”

  • Global IP traffic is expected to reach 80.5 exabytes per month by 2015, up from approximately 20.2 exabytes per month in 2010.
  • Average global IP traffic in 2015 will reach 245 terabytes per second, equivalent to 200 million people streaming an HD movie (1.2 Mbps) simultaneously every day.

Regional IP Traffic Trends

  • By 2015, the Asia Pacific region will generate the most IP traffic (24.1 exabytes per month), surpassing last year’s leader, North America (22.3 exabytes per month), for the top spot.
  • The fastest-growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast period (2010 – 2015) are the Middle East and Africa (which had a 52-percent compound annual growth rate, for an eightfold growth), surpassing last year’s leader Latin America (48 percent CAGR, sevenfold growth).

Primary Growth Driver: Consumer Video

  • The global online video community will increase by approximately 500 million users by 2015, up from more than 1 billion Internet video users in 2010.

Global Device Growth

  • In 2010, PCs generated 97 percent of consumer Internet traffic. This will fall to 87 percent by 2015, demonstrating the impact that devices like tablets, smartphones and connected TVs are having on how consumers access and use the Internet.
  • Accessing the Internet on Web-enabled TVs continues to grow and by 2015, 10 percent of global consumer Internet traffic and 18 percent of Internet video traffic will be consumed via TVs.

3DTV and HD (Advanced Video)

  • Global advanced video traffic, including three-dimensional (3-D) and high-definition TV (HDTV), is projected to increase 14 times between 2010 and 2015.

Mobile Broadband

  • Global mobile Internet data traffic will increase 26 times from 2010 to 2015, to 6.3 exabytes per month (or 75 exabytes annually).

Global File Sharing

  • By 2015, global peer-to-peer traffic will account for 16 percent of global consumer Internet traffic, down from 40 percent in 2010.

Global Business IP Traffic

  • Business IP video conferencing is projected to grow sixfold over the forecast period, growing more than two times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 41 percent from 2010 to 2015.

Supporting Quote

    • Suraj Shetty, vice president of worldwide service provider marketing, Cisco

“The explosive growth in Internet data traffic, especially video, creates an opportunity in the years ahead for optimizing and monetizing visual, virtual and mobile Internet experiences. As architect of the next-generation Internet, Cisco stands ready to help our customers not only accommodate this rapid expansion of Internet activity through the evolution of their networks but also help them thrive as a result of it.”

Embedded Video

  • Watch VoD: Top trends behind the Cisco annual VNI Forecast, 2010 to 2015

Supporting Resources

Editor’s Note

Cisco welcomes press, analysts, bloggers, service providers, regulators and other interested parties to use and reference our research with proper attribution, such as “source: Cisco VNI.”

Tags/Keywords

Cisco, IP Traffic, Visual Networking, VNI, VNI Forecast, Broadband, Video, IP Video, HD Video, 3D Video, Video Networking, Service Provider, Peer-to-Peer, Suraj Shetty

RSS Feed for Cisco: http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/rss.html

About Cisco

Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) is the worldwide leader in networking that transforms how people connect, communicate and collaborate. Information about Cisco can be found at http://www.cisco.com. For ongoing news, please go to http://newsroom.cisco.com.


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