Archive for janeiro \31\+00:00 2011

O quê falta para as Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação – TICs do Brasil “decolarem”?

janeiro 31, 2011

Saiu a nova newsletter da Creativante, cujo título é “O quê falta para as Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação – TICs do Brasil “decolarem”?“, que dá inicío a uma provocativa argumentação em que a Creativante deseja contribuir.

Para acessar a newsletter basta acessar aqui!

Drugmakers see pain from reform and prices in 2011

janeiro 27, 2011

Indústria farmacêuitca mundial enfrenta grandes desafios neste 2011!

É o que reporta a Reuters:!

Drugmakers see pain from reform and prices in 2011

By Kate Kelland and Katie Reid

LONDON/BASEL | Thu Jan 27, 2011 8:41am EST

LONDON/BASEL (Reuters) – Drugmakers AstraZeneca (AZN.L), Novartis (NOVN.VX), Eli Lilly (LLY.N) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.N) issued cautious 2011 forecasts, bracing the sector for challenging patent expiries and price pressures from U.S. health reforms.

While AstraZeneca cheered investors with above-forecast fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday and a surprise promise to buy back $4 billion of shares, it joined its Swiss rival in warning of pressure from generics, U.S. reforms and price cuts.

The earnings come after diversified healthcare group Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) kicked off the big pharma season by posting disappointing sales and cautioning it was facing growing pressure from governments and insurers to keep a lid on prices.

On Wednesday, Abbott Laboratories (ABT.N) forecast double-digit profit growth in 2011, but barely as much as Wall Street expects, and said it will cut 1,900 jobs over several years to offset costs of U.S. healthcare reforms.

“We’re quite bearish on the sector as a whole,” said Amit Roy, a pharmaceuticals analyst at Nomura in London.

Roy sees pressure increasing as new products being launched turn out to be little better than established or generic competitors.

“We see less commercial potential for many of the drugs being launched now,” Roy said. “They are not that differentiated from what is already out there.”

Novartis, the first European drugmaker to report in this earnings season, missed forecasts with a 10 percent drop in fourth-quarter core earnings per share and said it expected sales for 2011 to be lower.

Figures from both Astra and Novartis were dampened compared with 2010, when profits were boosted by windfall sales of H1N1 flu vaccines.

“If you look at what we’re facing in 2011, we have more headwinds than we did in 2010,” Novartis Chief Executive Joe Jimenez said. “We don’t have the benefit of H1N1 and we’ve got more cost containment coming from the U.S. as some of the healthcare reform costs kick in.”

Astra reckoned the impact of U.S. healthcare reform on sales would be close to $700 million in 2011, while Eli Lilly said the impact would lower 2011 revenue by $400 million to $500 million.

Lilly reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales and earnings, bolstered by favorable taxes and strong sales of its Cymbalta depression medicine. Its U.S. rival Bristol reported a disappointing quarterly profit and forecast roughly flat earnings this year, instead of the 3 percent growth Wall Street expected for the drugmaker.

Shares in Novartis were down 2.2 percent, while Astra’s buyback news and forecast boosted its stock by around 1.5 percent.

Bristol and Lilly shares were little changed in initial premarket trading.


Astra will face pricing pressure this year from key competitor brands losing exclusivity, such as Pfizer’s (PFE.N) Lipitor, which competes in the statin market with its blockbuster Crestor.

Sales of its Crestor cholesterol-lowering drug rose 24 percent in 2010 to $5.69 billion, across all regions.

“The coming years will be challenging for the industry and for the company as its revenue base transitions through a period of exclusivity losses and new product launches,” Astra said.

Astra said several setbacks, including the dropping of its lung drug hopeful motavizumab and heart medicine Certriad, and a delay to a U.S. decision on a license for its blood thinner Brilinta, had led it to cut expectations for future sales from pipeline drugs to $3 billion-$5 billion from $4 billion-$6 billion.

AstraZeneca Chief Financial Officer Simon Lowth said that impact would mean overall sales by 2014 were likely to be in the middle of its $28 billion-$34 billion forecast, rather than at the top end as it had previously hoped.

Novartis, which has had one of the most lucrative pipelines in the industry, said the uptake of multiple sclerosis pill Gilenya was in line with its expectations, recording sales of $13 million since its launch in October.

The group also said its newest products, such as its generic version of Sanofi-Aventis’ (SASY.PA) blood thinner Lovenox and cancer drug Tasigna, which Novartis is hoping will replace older blockbuster Glivec, performed well.

Lilly faces the U.S. patent expiry of its top-selling Zyprexa schizophrenia medicine later this year, while its No. 2 product, anti-depressant Cymbalta, faces generics in mid-2013.

The profit picture for Bristol-Myers will deteriorate in May 2012, when it and partner Sanofi-Aventis lose U.S. marketing exclusivity on their Plavix blood-clot preventer.

Bristol-Myers said it expects a profit in 2013 — the first full year Plavix will confront the generic onslaught — that may only be slightly higher than in 2009.

(Additional reporting by Ransdell Pierson and Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Paul Sandle in London, editing by Alexander Smith, Dave Zimmerman)

Por dentro do Mercado das Empresas de Médio Porte: uma Perspectiva para 2011

janeiro 24, 2011

Já está no ar a primeira newsletter da Creativante de 2011, intitulada “Por dentro do Mercado das Empresas de Médio Porte: uma Perspectiva para 2011“, e que você pode acessar aqui!


janeiro 23, 2011

Pode-se dizer várias coisas do Prof. Paul Krugman, Prêmio Nobel de Economia de 2008, menos que ele é incoerente!

E quando se trata de competitividade, haja coerência! Há anos que ele mantém uma posição isolada no debate internacional, e a mantém com obstinada coerência.

Vejam um post seu recente em sua coluna em The New York Times, abaixo!


Paul Krugman

January 22, 2011, 9:34 am

Sigh. So it appears that President Obama is going to make “competitiveness” his main economic theme. To be fair, he could (and may well) do worse. But this is hackneyed stuff, and involves a fundamental misconception about the nature of our economic problems.

It’s OK to talk about competitiveness when you’re specifically asking whether a country’s exports and import-competing industries have low enough costs to sell stuff in competition with rivals in other countries; measures of relative costs and prices are, in fact, commonly — and unobjectionably — referred to as competitiveness indicators.

But the idea that broader economic performance is about being better than other countries at something or other — that a companycountry is like a corporation –is just wrong. I wrote about this at length a long time ago, and everything I said then still holds true.*

The hopeful interpretation of Obama’s embrace of the idea that he’s the CEO of America Inc. is that it might help fend off right-wing attacks on government action as a whole, helping him sell the need for public investment of various kinds. On the other hand, as Robert Reich says, this could all too easily turn into a validation of the claim that what’s good for corporations is good for America, which is even less true now than it used to be.

All in all, it’s kind of sad. And the less said about Jeffrey Immelt’s vacuous op-ed, the better.

*Side note: the usual suspects are going to look at the opening of this piece and say “Ha! Krugman used to think that unemployment benefits cause unemployment! He used to be down on Europe!” So, two points: UI can raise the unemployment rate at which inflation begins to rise — but that’s not our problem now; and over the 17 years since that article was published, a number of European countries have undertaken reforms that substantially improved their job performance.

Cloud computing and the Jevons Paradox

janeiro 22, 2011

Interessante observação econômica feita no post abaixo, publicado no blog!

Cloud computing and the Jevons Paradox

Cloud computing and the Jevons Paradox

By  Carl Brooks, Senior Technology Writer


Weekly cloud computing update

For anyone interested in cloud computing, it’s important to keep a realistic picture of what’s actually transpiring in the cloud-based IT world. Yes, it’s a transformative new model. Yes, it can enable astounding business growth (see: Netflix). And yes, you need to understand it and its implications. But no, those in the enterprise aren’t doing much with it.

Why is that? First, the hype is sort of self-powered. The best, and first, use case for cloud computing is the gaudy, self-important and hyper-available world of Web-based businesses, social media and new media. Amazon Web Services is ideal for that vaporous world, and they’re letting us know all about it. Second, it’s demonstrably awesome: there’s not a single IT person out there who doesn’t look at how a successful cloud operates and think, “My life hurts compared to this.”

But the most important thing to keep in mind about cloud is that it’s not a massive wave of transformation; it’s a way to squeeze more out of less. Cloud computing is really a phase in the normalization of technology into our lives. That brings us to the Jevons Paradox: Why are people doing more with technology online, yet the material footprint of cloud isn’t that great?

How cloud fits into this economic paradox
Andrew McAfee wrote a thoughtful piece wondering how much IT demand will continue to grow. He noted the apparently contradictory trends of an insatiable appetite for efficiency, consolidation and lower cost, and the growth of hardware and service sales. How can we demand to spend less and yet the market keeps growing?

Anyone that’s saying cloud computing can save you money doesn’t know what they are talking about.Carl Brooks

That is the Jevons Paradox; the cheaper you make something that people want, the more they use it, despite the thing becoming impossibly cheap. Sugar, corn, lumber, cotton, pork bellies and now, computing power. Sugar is so cheap that it makes more sense to ship it around the world than grow it in your backyard. That’s going to come with CPU cycles and data storage.

We’re seeing reflections of this truth in IT today. Cloud computing means getting more out of your money, not spending less money. If you’re in operations, cloud computing is not going to save you money. You’re just going to be asked to do more with the same amount of gear and cash. That’s essentially what the Jevons Paradox and cloud computing mean to the enterprise. Anyone that’s saying cloud computing can save you money doesn’t know what they are talking about.

No one has ever said, “We’re so successful that we’re cutting down on operations!!” Instead, the IT department is going to be tasked with making hardware and software handle more and more business on increasingly tight budgets. That’s not a new trend (hello, outsourcing from 1999) but cloud is accelerating it.

The Jevons Paradox in effect
Anyone looking for a rudimentary gut check can look at the market, the walking definition of “stupid and reactionary.” Some cloud stocks took a massive hit yesterday, with network gear maker F5 bleeding out 25% of its value and hoster and cloud provider Rackspace dropping 11%. That’s because, despite massive adoption, revenue is pretty small. Rackspace has 100,000 cloud customers but makes less than 25% of its money from cloud.

Companies associated with cloud that didn’t get the axe included Amazon and Netflix, because their business models (and sky-high stock market valuations) are founded on old-fashioned retail sales.

The good news for all you IT people out there: technology is keeping up. Cloud computing techniques are pretty neat, even if the very best of them are still half-baked; by the time your pointy-haired boss comes down and asks to do something absurd for no money, you might actually be able to do it. Thanks, Bill!

Carl Brooks is the Senior Technology Writer at Contact him at

World Bank´s Global Economic Prospects – January 2011- Navigating Strong Currents

janeiro 21, 2011

Novo relatório do Banco Mundial apontando para 2011 (ver aqui)!


Developing Countries Are Driving Global Growth, but Risks Remain

  • Led by developing countries, the world economy is moving on from a post-crisis bounce-back phase of recovery to slower but still solid growth this year and next
  • Developing countries face three main short-term risks—tensions in financial markets, large and volatile capital flows, and a rise in high food prices
  • For the longer-term, countries need to shift focus from short-term crisis management toward measures that address underlying structural challenges

Washington, DC, January 12, 2011—The world economy is moving on from a post-crisis bounce-back phase of recovery to slower but still solid growth this year and next. Global GDP, which expanded by 3.9% in 2010, is expected to slow to 3.3% in 2011, according to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects 2011.

Most of the developing world has weathered the financial crisis well, and, by the end of 2010, many emerging market economies had recovered or were close to resuming the growth potential they had attained prior to the crisis.

“On the upside, strong developing-country domestic demand growth is leading the world economy, yet persistent financial sector problems in some high-income countries are still a threat to growth and require urgent policy actions,” said Justin Yifu Lin, the World Bank’s chief economist and senior vice president for development economics.

Developing country growth of 7% in 2010, and 6% in 2011 is projected, which is more than twice the rate projected for high-income countries (see table).

Most low-income countries saw trade gains in 2010 and, overall, their GDP rose 5.3% in 2010. This was supported by a pick-up in commodity prices, and to a lesser extent in remittances and tourism. Their prospects are projected to strengthen even more, with growth of 6.5% in both 2011 and 2012, respectively.

Restructuring ahead for ECA, high-income countries

In many high-income and developing European and Central Asian economies, growth has been modest given the size of the 2008 downturn. As a result, despite two years of aggressive fiscal and monetary policy stimulus, unemployment remains high and aggregate growth is being held back by necessary post-crisis restructuring. Estimates of potential output suggest that most of the remaining spare capacity in the global economy is concentrated among high-income and developing Europe and Central Asian countries.

Summary Table

Short-Term Risks for Developing Countries

Developing countries face three main short-term risks—tensions in European financial markets, large and volatile capital flows, and a rise in high food prices.

Full-scale financial turmoil, while viewed as unlikely, could threaten recovery in developing as well as developed countries. With so much at stake, regulators and international policymakers are determined to avert such an outcome.

Capital flows to developing countries (especially to nine middle-income countries*) picked up in 2010, in part because persistent low interest rates in certain high-income countries led investors to seek higher yield in developing countries. Net international equity and bond flows to developing countries rose sharply in 2010, rising by 42% and 30% respectively, with nine countries receiving the bulk of the increase in inflows. Foreign direct investment to developing countries rose a more modest 16% in 2010, reaching $410 billion after falling 40% in 2009. An important part of the rebound is due to rising South-South investments, particularly originating in Asia.

Overall the capital flows trend is a positive development, but, unless such flows are well managed, they can destabilize movements in exchange rates, commodity prices, and asset-prices. Of the nine countries that received the bulk of capital flows, several have seen their real-effective exchange rates rise by 20 or more percent since January 2009. Many have introduced various financial and regulatory measures to limit inflows and upward pressure on currencies, but these have not always worked as desired.

Commodity price volatility, especially in terms of food, could constitute the third risk to developing country growth. Further disappointing agricultural crop news, or an escalation in energy prices, could cause real food prices in developing countries to rise substantially—potentially cutting into the meager budgets of poor families in low income countries. However, while international food prices have risen recently, the GEP says that, in real terms, the increase is much less than in nominal terms. Real prices at the moment are still somewhat lower than the peak in 2008. Thus, while the current situation isn’t as severe as during the earlier food and fuel crisis, careful monitoring and vigilance are required, since the likelihood of a more serious problem cannot be ruled out.

Beyond 2012: Focusing on Structural Challenges

For the longer-term, countries need to shift focus from short-term crisis management toward measures that address underlying (and difficult to resolve) structural challenges. These include:

  • Implementing credible plans for restoring fiscal sustainability
  • Shifting the emphasis from broad-based demand stimulus measures toward fiscal measures that facilitate the re-employment of displaced workers
  • Completing the re-regulation of the financial sector
  • Pursuing policies that permit exchange rates to gradually adjust in-line with fundamentals
  • Reducing the volatility of major reserve currencies in order to sustain confidence

*Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey

LinkedIn Said to Be Worth Almost $3 Billion in Secondary Sale

janeiro 21, 2011

Notícia de hoje da Businessweek/Bloomberg (!

LinkedIn Said to Be Worth Almost $3 Billion in Secondary Sale

January 21, 2011, 12:20 AM EST

By Douglas MacMillan and Ari Levy

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) — LinkedIn Corp. shares are being sold in an auction by secondary exchange SharesPost Inc. for $30 apiece, valuing the professional-networking website at almost $3 billion, according to three people familiar with the matter.

SharesPost has contacted LinkedIn shareholders to gauge interest, said two of the people, who declined to be identified because the auction isn’t public. Sellers had until this week to commit to SharesPost, and participants will be informed of results on Jan. 28, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg.

The sale would give LinkedIn investors a chance to divest shares before the company files for an initial public offering. LinkedIn has hired banks including Morgan Stanley & JPMorgan Chase & Co. to advise on an IPO and may complete its prospectus this quarter, a person familiar with the plans said this month. SharesPost’s website now values LinkedIn at $2.51 billion.

LinkedIn has 97.1 million shares outstanding, according to SharesPost. At $30 a share, investors would be valuing the Mountain View, California-based company at $2.91 billion. A minimum of 95,500 shares will be sold and buyers must invest at least $100,000 to be eligible.

LinkedIn, based in Mountain View, California, has more than 1,000 employees and 90 million users in more than 200 countries. Members use the site to search for jobs, recruit employees and find industry experts. The company allows users to create and maintain profiles for free and makes money through a premium service and from advertising.

Hani Durzy, a spokesman for LinkedIn, declined to comment.

Surge in Trading

A surge in secondary-market trading helped push up the valuations of LinkedIn, Facebook Inc., Twitter Inc. and other top venture-backed Web startups by a combined 54 percent between June and December, according to Nyppex LLC.

“We cannot comment on any prospective or current offerings,” SharesPost Chief Executive Officer Dave Weir said in a statement. “We would be happy to discuss the results of any future auctions if and when we have them once they are completed.”

As more investors clamor for stakes in private companies, regulators are stepping up scrutiny. SecondMarket Inc., a SharesPost competitor, said this month that it received a request for information from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC is seeking information about trading in companies including LinkedIn and Facebook, the Wall Street Journal and New York Times reported last month.

SharesPost, founded in 2009, is an online marketplace that connects more than 45,000 investors with private-company securities, according to its site. In March, San Bruno, California-based SharesPost introduced a venture-backed index that tracks the value of seven companies based on recent transactions, bid and offer prices, research reports and venture financing.

LinkedIn is the fourth-biggest company by market value on SharesPost’s index. Facebook is the biggest with a $76 billion valuation, followed by Zynga Game Network Inc. and Twitter.

–Editors: Jillian Ward, Tom Giles.

To contact the reporters on this story: Douglas MacMillan in San Francisco at; Ari Levy in San Francisco at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tom Giles at

Why Do Management Practices Differ across Firms and Countries?

janeiro 20, 2011

Eis aí (link abaixo) um interessante artigo de dois economistas britânicos que acompanhamos já há algum tempo. Eles coordenam uma ampla pesquisa, a World Management Survey (, num consórcio de várias instituições internacionais.

Os autores buscam explorar um tema (Práticas de Administração) que os economistas muitas vezes “desdenham” ou têm dificuldade de analisar.  De qualquer forma, o que eles pesquisam contribui enormente um melhor entendimento do que hoje se denomina por Organizational Economics (Economia Organizacional)(quem desejar entender o escopo desta área, pode acessar o início de uma palestra minha em

Ao lado da literatura que se desenvolveu em torno do tema da Governança Corporativa, este tema das Práticas de Administração é uma área de pesquisa de grande relevância para a Economia.

O artigo se intitula ” Why Do Management Practices Differ across Firms and Countries?“, escrito por Nicholas Bloom and John Van Reenen, publicado no Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 24, Number 1—Winter 2010—Pages 203–224,  e pode ser baixado no seguinte link:

Clique para acessar o Why-Do-Management-Practices-Differ-Across-Firms-and-Countries-Bloom-and-Van-Reenen.pdf

U.S. is Still the World’s #1 Manufacturer

janeiro 18, 2011

Post informativo do blog do Prof. Mark Perry (

Thursday, January 13, 2011

U.S. is Still the World’s #1 Manufacturer

We hear a lot about the “decline of U.S. manufacturing” (84,000 Google hits) or even more drastically, about “the death of American manufacturing” (15,400 Google hits).

The chart above shows the U.S. share of world manufacturing output, annually from 1970 to 2009, based on data from the United Nations.  There has been a recent decline in America’s share of world manufacturing output, from 25.3% a decade ago in 1999 to 16.82% in 2008, but note several important facts about the chart:

1. The U.S. share of world manufacturing output was amazingly constant between 1970 and the early part of this decade, and as recently as 2006 was above 20%.  It sure seems like we’ve been hearing about the “decline of U.S. manufacturing” for the last several decades or longer, when the factual evidence suggests that it’s actually only a very recent phenomenon – and that’s only when measured by our share of rising global manufacturing output.  Given the recent phenomenal economic and manufacturing growth in places like China, Brazil, India, Russia, and Korea, among others, it would only make sense that our share of world factory output has declined in recent years (but notice it did jump up a bit 2009).
2. In terms of the total amount of manufacturing produced in a year, the United States still leads the world in annual manufacturing, see chart below for the 2009 rankings of the top seven countries in the world for factory output.

In 2009, the United States produced almost 14% more manufacturing output than second place China, and produced almost as much ($2,334 billion) as Japan, Germany, Italy, France and the U.K. combined ($2,762 billion).

3. Although it’s true that the U.S. has lost more than 7 million manufacturing jobs, from an employment level of more than 19 million manufacturing jobs in the late 1970s to fewer than 12 million jobs today, that’s happened at the same time that U.S. manufacturing output has continued to expand and grow.  In 2009, the U.S. produced more manufacturing output, $2.334 trillion, than ever before in history (nominal dollars), see chart:

Bottom Line: The many stories about the “death of America’s manufacturing sector” have been greatly exaggerated.

Steve Jobs leaves the building, again

janeiro 18, 2011

Saúde de Steve Jobs volta a preocupar. Matéria do site da revista The Economist!


Steve Jobs leaves the building, again

Jan 17th 2011, 16:31 by The Economist online | SAN FRANCISCO

    THE serious health problems that Apple’s boss, Steve Jobs, has been struggling with over the past few years have not, alas, gone away. On January 17th the company released the following e-mail, sent by its chief executive to all employees:


    At my request, the board of directors has granted me a medical leave of absence so I can focus on my health. I will continue as CEO and be involved in major strategic decisions for the company.

    I have asked Tim Cook to be responsible for all of Apple’s day to day operations. I have great confidence that Tim and the rest of the executive management team will do a terrific job executing the exciting plans we have in place for 2011.

    I love Apple so much and hope to be back as soon as I can. In the meantime, my family and I would deeply appreciate respect for our privacy.


    Mr Jobs’s stepping aside comes at a sensitive time for the company, which has enjoyed stunning success with its iPhones, iPads and other gadgets, but also faces some formidable competitors. Apple has so far released no further details on the exact reasons for his medical leave, or how long he’s expected to be away, but in 2004 Mr Jobs had surgery following a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer, then in 2009 he took a six-month leave of absence during which he received a liver transplant. Since then he has appeared reinvigorated and has wowed audiences with his trademark salesmanship when unveiling everything from iPads to new versions of the company’s Macintosh computers.

    His 2009 absence gave Apple an opportunity to try out a temporary management arrangement that it is set to use again, with Mr Cook, the chief operating officer (pictured, left, with Mr Jobs), taking over the helm but Mr Jobs continuing to play a leading role in strategic decisions. Last time round, this division of labour worked extremely well and Mr Jobs was back in time to mastermind the launch of the iPad. For his efforts, Mr Cook was rewarded with a package of cash and stock options worth over $59m last year.

    Apple’s shareholders would no doubt be happy to hand over that amount and more to Mr Cook if he can once again keep Apple’s innovation machine running smoothly. Unlike last year, when it launched the iPad, Apple isn’t expected to unveil any new blockbuster products in 2011. Instead, it is likely to come up with tweaks to its existing lines. A new version of the iPad is rumoured to be in the works for the spring, and many Apple observers think the company will launch the next generation of its wildly popular iPhone, the iPhone 5, in the summer. More clues about these and other projects may be available when it reveals its results on January 18th.

    Given that Apple isn’t in new-launch mode, the absence of Mr Jobs from day-to-day operations, assuming it is temporary, is unlikely to have a big impact on the firm in the short term. But throughout this year competition will become stiffer in a whole host of areas in which Apple is active. For instance, by the summer a large number of tablet computers based on Google’s Android platform are likely to have come to market. Apple’s shareholders and its employees will be hoping that the wizard who helped turn it into such a huge success story will be back at the helm in time to write the next chapter in one of technology’s most impressive tales.

    Read on: A rare copy of Apple’s first computer is auctioned off, along with a fascinating 1976 letter from Steve Jobs (Nov 2010)

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