Estamos iniciando uma nova categoria sobre a China. E nada mais interessante do que noticiar sobre sua economia, e com um post que saiu no Financial Times do dia 11/11/2010, cujo original saiu aqui!
By Geoff Dyer in Beijing
Published: November 11 2010 04:11 | Last updated: November 11 2010 14:16
Chinese inflation jumped to its highest level in just over two years in October, prompting new fears that the economy could be overheating as a result of the government’s huge stimulus measures.
Consumer price inflation surged to 4.4 per cent in October from 3.6 per cent the month before, well above the government’s target of 3 per cent and increasing the pressure on the authorities to introduce new tightening measures.
Beijing is also under pressure from other governments to accelerate the appreciation of its currency – a topic that will be prominent at Friday’s G20 summit – which could help damp inflationary pressures. At the close of Asian trading on Thursday, the Chinese currency had gained almost 1 per cent against the dollar over three days.
Li Wei and Stephen Green at Standard Chartered in Shanghai said that on a seasonally adjusted basis, consumer price inflation increased at an annualised rate of 12.1 per cent in October, up from 5.2 per cent the month before. “This is worrying as inflation is now heading towards its level in mid-2007, which was a time of overheating,” they said in a note.
Several Chinese officials have warned in recent weeks that the new round of quantitative easing in the US will lead to hot money inflows into developing economies, and the Chinese foreign exchange regulator has taken steps this week to reduce capital inflows in the financial system.
However, many economists believe that it is relaxed monetary policy in China which is adding to the domestic inflationary pressures, rather than capital inflows from overseas. “There is no trick to keeping growth afloat on a sea of credit, the question is what happens when the lending taps are turned off,” said Tom Orlik, an economist at Stone & McCarthy in Beijing.
Jun Ma at Deutsche Bank predicts that the authorities will relabel monetary policy from “relaxed” to “prudent” at an economic policymakers conference in December, which would signal a reduction in the planned growth of new loans for next year. Some economists predict the government might introduce some form of price controls if the inflation rate remains at this level.
“China needs to do more to keep this year’s inflation under the target ceiling,” Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the statistics bureau, said on Thursday.
Other figures released on Thursday suggested the economy continues to expand at a strong rate. Industrial production increased 13.1 per cent in October compared to the year before, while retail sales expanded by 18.6 per cent, year-on-year.
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