Parece que a recuperação da economia americana, com o fim da recessão, será mais rápida do que se imaginava. Eis o que aponta hoje o blog do Prof. Mark Perry. Coincidentemente o indice BOVESPA no Brasil passou dos 50.000 pontos!
Vamos monitorar bem de perto estes números!
Springtime for US Economy Could Start This Month
If we refine the NBER weekly trough date to be the third week in the NBER trough month, then in four of the past five recessions the new claims peak leads the NBER weekly trough by a range of only four to six weeks, and in the fifth recession the new claims peak lags the NBER weekly trough by two weeks. Since new claims have recently reached a peak in the week ending 4 April 2009, it is tempting to conclude that the monthly trough of the US recession could come as early as the middle of May 2009 – a date earlier than most analysts appear to expect.