Archive for abril \29\UTC 2008

Terceiro Mandato e Pena de Morte: o que eles têm em comum?

abril 29, 2008

“O título deste artigo me veio à mente a partir da leitura do post População quer o terceiro mandato. E agora? que nosso Pierre Lucena colocou ontem neste blog, citando uma pesquisa da CNT/Sensus que praticamente diz que a população quer o terceiro mandato. Ou seja, 50,4% dos entrevistados querem que Lula se candidate mais uma vez, e 51,1% disseram que votariam nele.

Isto me fez lembrar uma ocasião em que a ex-Primeira Ministra da Grã-Bretanha Margareth Thatcher quis empurrar goela abaixo nos britânicos um imposto chamado Poll Tax, que incidiria em todos os cidadãos, independentemente de renda, local de moradia, etc. A reação do Parlamento Britânico foi estrondosa, e era capitaneada pelo líder da oposição à época, se não me engano Neil Kinnock, Presidente do radical Labour Party- Partido Trabalhista, que depois veio a ser liderado por John Smith, que viera a falecer em 1994, sendo substituído então pelo jovem advogado de centro-esquerda Tony Blair. Tony Blair, que derrotou o conservador John Major (que sucedeu Margareth Thatcher em 1990) nas eleições majoritárias de 1997, interrompeu uma hegemonia dos conservadores que vinha desde 1979; portanto 18 anos de poder dos conservadores. Agora a hegemonia é dos Trabalhistas, que já estão há onze anos no poder!”

Esta é a introdução ao meu artigo desta semana no blog Acerto de Contas, que você pode acessar aqui!

O impacto das TICs nas estruturas organizacionais: evidência da área de saúde no Japão

abril 28, 2008

 

“A saúde é uma das áreas mais importantes da vida humana.  Em termos dos investimentos em saúde, estamos vivenciando momentos delicados, já que grande parte das nações está ampliando de modo significativo seu dispêndio neste setor. Alguns números sobre gastos com saúde, como proporção do PIB de quatro países, entre 1970 e 2004, colhidos do blog do Prof. Paul Krugman, da Princeton University, EUA, dão conta disto:

 

 

 

Quando se observa a tendência, o drama é ainda maior!  Segundo dados de janeiro de 2007 do Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (do Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services), sobre os gastos do sistema de saúde dos Estados Unidos, esta nação deverá estar investindo em saúde cerca de 20% do seu PIB no ano de 2015.”

Esta é a introdução da newsletter da Creativante desta semana, que você pode acessar aqui!

 

On This Day in History (da Enciclopédia Britânica)

abril 25, 2008

Como noticiei há alguns dias, a Enciclopédia Britânica- EB está com um serviço on-line de reciprocidade com blogueiros. Ela permite que blogueiros que se inscrevam no seu serviço tenham acesso ás suas informações.  Os blogueiros, reproduzindo as informações da EB, contribuem para perpetuação da sua importância na blogesfera!

Aqui vai um dos serviços que estou tendo todos os dias!

More Events On This Day In History
1926: Arturo Toscanini.Giacomo Puccini‘s uncompleted opera Turandot was performed posthumously at La Scala under the direction of Arturo Toscanini.
1915: Allied troops line the shore at  ANZAC Cove  on the Gallipoli Peninsula. The cove was  The Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) landed at Gallipoli in western Turkey during the Dardanelles Campaign of World War I.
1874: Guglielmo Marconi, 1908.Guglielmo Marconi, an Italian physicist who invented a successful system of radio telegraphy (1896) and received the Nobel Prize for Physics (1909), was born.
1809: The Treaty of Amritsar, which settled Indo-Sikh relations for a generation, was concluded between Charles T. Metcalfe, representing the British East India Company, and Ranjit Singh, head of the Sikh kingdom of Punjab.
1792: The first guillotine was erected, on the Place de Grève in Paris, to execute a highwayman.
1781: Petersburg, Virginia, was captured by British troops under William Phillips and Benedict Arnold during the American Revolution.

A subida do Golfo

abril 25, 2008

A nova The Economist saiu com uma matéria líder sobre a região do Golfo Árabe.  Segundo a revista,  o Golfo está administrando sua riqueza melhor neste boom (de subida de preços do petróleo) do que o fez durante o último.

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MOST countries earn their keep through effort and ingenuity. Those of the Gulf owe their living to geological serendipity. The harder China works, the faster India grows, the higher oil prices climb.

The Gulf swells with confidence or despair depending on the price of “Arabian light” or “Oman blend”. Five years ago, though up from its $9 low in the 1990s, the oil price stood at a mere $26 a barrel. Many of the Gulf’s governments were indebted and insecure. Saudi Arabia was facing an al-Qaeda insurgency. Expatriates, used to a secure if sequestered life, tried not to think about the tanks parked outside their compounds. Now the same oil fetches over $100 a barrel and confidence has returned. The insurgency in Saudi Arabia has been quashed. The Gulf is once again a source of envy more than concern (see article).

Surely only good can come from so much cash? Hardly. In the 1970s the Gulf’s money was a disaster for Latin America, for, recycled through Western banks, it caused a decade-long debt crisis. The Gulf itself suffered by inflicting stagflation on the West, thus causing a 20-year-long slump in oil prices. They built white elephants such as the King Khalid airport in Riyadh, one of whose terminals has been mothballed since the airport opened in 1983. They allowed a greedy few, many of them arms dealers, to pocket huge fortunes. They distorted their economies in the name of diversification, for example by growing wheat in the desert.

A better Xanadu

Are the Gulf countries handling their windfall any better this time? The sheer quantity of cash is hard to manage. It is too plentiful for small economies to spend, and has therefore added to the glut of global saving that is in part responsible for the financial excesses of recent years. Indeed, some economists see an analogy with the 1970s. Gulf petrodollars have been recycled not to improvident governments in Latin America but instead to improvident homebuyers in the uncreditworthy fringes of America.

The Gulf is doing its best to spend its windfall. Stately pleasure domes are springing up all along the coast. Saudi Arabia announces six, no seven!, new economic cities, which it hopes will create millions of jobs for its restive, youthful population. There are worrying echoes of the wasteful 1970s. But this time round, more of the spending is being done by private companies, with an eye to consumer demand, rather than by states.

Awash with capital, the Gulf countries need labour. Thanks to a liberal attitude to guest workers, in the UAE, for instance, over 90% of the private labour force is made up of foreigners. Some of the follies these Indians, Bangladeshis, Chinese and Filipinos build will not earn much return, but at least they help spread the wealth around. And now that American spending is faltering, a splurge is welcome. As Adam Smith said, outlays on “trinkets of frivolous utility” are what “keeps in continual motion the industry of mankind.”

Still, the Gulf’s splurge might be better spent if governments were doing even less of the splurging. Despite tentative reforms, too much money remains in state hands. The Saudis have become friendlier to business, taking steps to liberalise the financial system, airlines and telecommunications. But the government is still too fond of its grandiose projects and too slow to get unglamorous things right. It takes an age, for example, to enforce a contract in the country’s courts.

By the same token, it would help if local currencies were allowed to strengthen. Currency reform is not just a way to constrain inflation, but also a means of redistributing spending. At present, the petrodollars are converted into local money at a fixed rate and doled out as governments see fit. With stronger local currencies the state would get fewer dirhams, dinars or riyals for every petrodollar. But Gulf residents would be able to buy more with their money, and guest workers could send more rupees home to families in Kerala.

There is another way to transfer economic initiative from governments to people. At present the Gulf states buy social peace by doling out generous benefits and subsidies, such as cheap housing and medical care, expanding the public payroll and forcing private companies to hire locals in the name of Omanisation or Saudi-isation. Too many Gulf nationals receive a government pay cheque for a meaningless job, or owe their jobs in private firms to a hiring quota. They pretend to work and have neither the time nor the incentive to start businesses or acquire skills.

Could there be a better way? Last winter, 604,000 Alaskans each pocketed a $1,654 cheque from the state’s Permanent Fund, which invests Alaska’s oil revenues on their behalf. Each year, the fund distributes a fraction of its profits, averaged over five years, to every resident. They do not have to work for it, and are free to spend it as they wish. This notion is as foreign to the Gulf as a glacier to the desert. But in a region that likes to impress people with outlandish projects, paying a simple dividend cheque to every Gulf national would be a more audacious venture than the tallest new tower.

Buy some insurance, while you’re at it

Given the impressive levels of spending on education in the Gulf, it is hard to imagine that its middle classes will put up with so little control over their countries’ wealth—or, indeed, their governments—for long. There are some signs of change, but they are small. By Saudi standards, King Abdullah is a reformer; by any other standards, he moves exceedingly slowly. There is external danger, too. When Saddam Hussein sent his tanks streaming into Kuwait, he was cheered on by many Arabs whose own countries never won a geological lottery and who continue to resent the undeserving fat cats with oil.

Today’s dangers are different. Saddam is gone. But the Gulf states are threatened by the chaotic politics in Iraq and by the rivalry between America and Iran for influence in the region. In their volatile part of the planet, the sheikhs cannot buy perfect security. But they might consider investing a bit more of their windfall in stabilising Iraq and the broader Middle East, not just in their fabulous pleasure domes.

 

Analítica: o novo diferencial à disposição dos CIOs

abril 24, 2008

Ups! Quase ia esquecendo de colocar a newsletter da Creativante desta semana, cuja introdução segue abaixo, mas você pode acessar o texto completo aqui!

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“As empresas (mais nos países desenvolvidos, e menos em países em desenvolvimento) vinham usando inteligência dos negócios para aplicações específicas, mas estas iniciativas eram muito limitadas para afetar a performance corporativa. Agora, as empresas líderes estão baseando suas estratégias competitivas na sofisticada análise dos dados de negócios.

Ao invés de uma simples aplicação, elas estão edificando amplas capacidades ao nível da empresa em termos de analítica de negócios e inteligência. Seu mandato vai bem além dos dados e da tecnologia, e se volta para atacar os processos, habilidades e culturas de suas organizações. E estas estratégias são conduzidas por executivos seniores que reforçam as decisões baseadas em fatos.

Thomas H. Davenport, Professor de Information Technology and Management do Babson College, Massachusetts, EUA, e conhecido especialista em Gestão de Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação-TICs (dentre seus importantes livros destaca-se “The Attention Economy: Understanding the New Currency of Business”, de 2002, e dentre seus artigos sobressai “Putting the Enterprise in the Enterprise System”, Harvard Business Review, July-August 1998), bem como uma das 100 mais influentes pessoas do mundo das TICs, de acordo com a Eweek.com, está com um novo (editado em 2007) livro intitulado “Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning” (Competindo em Analítica: A Nova Ciência de Vencer), pela Harvard Business School Press.”

 

Reinventando energia

abril 24, 2008

Artigo do Prof. Jeffrey Sachs no Yemen Times de hoje!

Reinventing energy

The world economy is being battered by sharply higher energy prices. While a few energy-exporting countries in the Middle East and elsewhere reap huge profits, the rest of the world is suffering as the price of oil has topped $110 per barrel and that of coal has doubled.Without plentiful and low-cost energy, every aspect of the global economy is threatened. For example, food prices are increasing alongside soaring oil prices, partly because of increased production costs, but also because farmland in the United States and elsewhere is being converted from food production to bio-fuel production.

No quick fix exists for oil prices. Higher prices reflect basic conditions of supply and demand. The world economy – especially China, India and elsewhere in Asia – has been growing rapidly, leading to a steep increase in global demand for energy, notably for electricity and transport. Yet global supplies of oil, natural gas and coal can’t keep up easily, even with new discoveries. And, in many places, oil supplies are declining as old oil fields are depleted.

Coal is in somewhat larger supply and can be turned into liquid fuels for transport. Yet coal is an inadequate substitute, partly because of limited supplies and partly because coal emits large amounts of carbon dioxide per unit of energy, making it a dangerous source of man-made climate change.

In order for developing countries to continue enjoying rapid economic growth and for rich nations to avoid a slump, it is necessary to develop new energy technologies. Three objectives should be targeted: low-cost alternatives to fossil fuels, greater energy efficiency and reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

The most promising technology in the long term is solar power. Total solar radiation hitting the Earth is about 1,000 times the world’s commercial energy use. This means that even a small part of the earth’s land surface, notably in desert regions, which receive massive solar radiation, can supply large amounts of electricity for much of the rest of the world.

For example, solar power plants in America’s Mohave Desert could supply more than half of that nation’s electricity needs. Solar power plants in Northern Africa could supply power to Western Europe, while solar power plants in the Sahel of Africa, just south of the vast Sahara, could power much of West, East and Central Africa.

Perhaps the single most promising development in terms of energy efficiency is plug-in hybrid technology for automobiles, which may be able to triple the fuel efficiency of new automobiles within the next decade.

The idea is that vehicles would run mainly on batteries recharged nightly on the electricity grid, with a gasoline-hybrid engine as a backup to the battery. General Motors may have an early version of this by 2010.

The most important technology for the safe environmental use of coal is the capture and geological storage of carbon dioxide from coal-fired power plants. Such carbon capture and sequestration, or CCS, is needed urgently in major coal-consuming nations, especially China, India, Australia and the U.S. As key CCS technologies already have been developed, it’s time to move from engineering blueprints to actual demonstration power plants.

For all of these promising technologies, governments should be investing in the science and high costs of early-stage testing. Without at least partial public financing, the uptake for these new technologies will be slow and uneven. Indeed, most major technologies that we now take for granted – airplanes, computers, the internet and new medicines, to name just a few – received crucial public financing in their early stages of development and deployment.

It’s shocking and worrisome that public financing remains slight because these technologies’ success could translate into literally trillions of dollars of economic output.

For example, according to the most recent data in 2006 from the International Energy Agency, the U.S. government annually invested a meager $3 billion in energy research and development. In inflation-adjusted dollars, this represents a decline of roughly 40 percent since the early 1980s and now equals what the U.S. spends on its military in just a day and a half. The situation is even more discouraging when we look at the particulars. U.S. government funding for renewable energy technologies (solar, wind, geothermal, ocean and bio-energy) was a meager $239 million – or just three hours of defense spending. Likewise, spending on carbon capture and sequestration was just $67 million, while spending for energy efficiency of all types (buildings, transport and industry) was $352 million.

Of course, developing new energy technologies isn’t America’s responsibility alone. Global cooperation on energy technologies is needed to increase supplies and ensure that energy use is environmentally safe, especially to head off man-made climate change from using fossil fuels.

This not only is good economics, but also good politics, as it can unite the world in our common interests, rather than dividing it in a bitter struggle over diminishing oil, gas and coal reserves.

Jeffrey Sachs is an economics professor and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2008.

 

 

 

Think tank de banco ???

abril 23, 2008

Pois é; eu sabia que alguns bancos têm suas áreas de pesquisa. Alguns no Brasil até colocam algumas coisas em seus sites.

Mas como o Deutsche Bank da Alemanha eu nunca vi!  Se você leitor quiser conhecer um banco com uma atividade de pesquisa econômica interessante, faça uma visita ao Deutsche Bank Research: http://dbresearch.com.

Lá você verá muitas coisas interessantes, principalmente sobre o Brasil!

 

Economia Criativa

abril 23, 2008

Hoje eu recebi uma indicação (de uma ex-aluna e amiga) do relatório da UNCTAD-United Nations Conference on Trade and Development  (Conferência das Nações Unidas para o Comércio e Desenvolvimento) sobre Economia Criativa. O relatório está em: http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/ditc20082cer_en.pdf.

Vale a pena uma leitura!

Série histórica do preço do barril de petróleo

abril 23, 2008

Vejam esta série histórica do preço do barril de petróleo que foi colocada ontem pelo Prof. Paul Krugman no seu blog:

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Interesse Nacional ???

abril 22, 2008

“Dei-me conta na semana passada da existência de uma nova revista, intitulada Interesse Nacional, e que conta com um blog: http://interessenacional.com/ ! A revista, que tem em seu conselho editorial 25 membros, começou a circular no dia 08 de abril, e foi lançada em São Paulo, no dia 16 de abril, num seminário sobre a Globalização e o Interesse Nacional do Brasil: uma agenda para o futuro, no Instituto Norberto Bobbio. Ela também será apresentada em Belo Horizonte, no dia 08 de maio, com debate no Banco de Desenvolvimento do Estado de Minas Gerais e Brasília, no dia 14 de maio.

Interesse Nacional, com periodicidade trimestral (quatro números ao ano), segundo a divulgação no blog, “defende uma orientação editorial diversificada, como convém a um país complexo e multifacetado como o Brasil”.”

Esta é a introdução ao meu artigo desta semana no blog Acerto de Contas, que você pode acessar aqui!


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