Gartner Identifies Four Disruptions That Will Transform the Software Industry (Gartner identifica quatro rupturas que irão transformar a Indústria de Software)

O Gartner, empresa especializada em pesquisas de tecnologias de informação, organiza simpósio e apresenta novas tendências!

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Gartner Identifies Four Disruptions That Will Transform the Software Industry

Analysts Examine the Future of Software During Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, October 12-16, in Orlando

STAMFORD, Conn., October 15, 2008 — Emerging software solutions will transform the software industry and the way software is used over time, according to Gartner, Inc. Software solutions are changing to be user-centric, Web-centric, service-oriented and utilized through new delivery models (such as cloud and software as a service). While this massive amount of change will not be delivered at once, it will cause significant disruptions to the industry.

“Four overarching trends are reshaping how IT is used in the workplace. Each of these megatrends or disruptors must be evaluated to determine if it will have an effect on the business,” said Yvonne Genovese, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. “Once that evaluation is complete, organizations should align business strategy, business key performance indicators (KPIs) and IT strategy. Notwithstanding megatrends, delivering to KPIs should be the primary driver of adoption of new software.”

Ms. Genovese presented her outlook for the software market during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, being held here through October 16.  She identified the four major disruptions to the software industry as the following:

Disruptor No. 1: Rise in New Technologies and Convergence of Existing Technologies — The IT market has reached a period of accelerated change and innovation in how IT is applied and delivered to businesses and consumers. Technology changes that have been centered on SOA migration have now been augmented to include business process management, device portability and mashup-capable content. By 2010, Web mashups will be the dominant model for the creation of composite enterprise applications.

“Mashup popularity stems from the ease with which mashups can be created. Because mashup applications can be created on the fly, they open up possibilities for a new class of more short-term or disposable applications that could never meet the criteria for corporate investment,” said Ms. Genovese. “Another benefit is that users can easily personalize mashup content displays. Mashups can resolve issues such as content aggregation and the needs of business users to have the personal flexibility to do different things by combining data from within and outside the enterprise.”

Disruptior No. 2: Change in Software User and Support Demographics — Changes in how, where and when we work, as well as new ways for companies to fulfill their needs via the Internet are fundamentally changing the structure of business. By 2015, no company will build or sustain a competitive advantage unless it capitalizes on the combined power of individualized behaviors, social dynamics and collaboration.

“Most current software is focused on general enterprise needs rather than user-specific needs,” Ms. Genovese said. “The opportunity for business and IT leaders is to understand how the individualization of work will affect businesses, critical processes, innovation and interenterprise collaboration. End-user preferences will decide as much as half of all software, hardware and service acquisitions made by IT.”

Disruptor No. 3: Revolutionary Changes in Software and How it is Consumed — By 2010, SOA will be used in part in more than 80 percent of new, mission-critical applications and business processes. The resulting future application environment will be more granular, inclusive and fluid to enable rapid composition, integration, orchestration and reuse. During 2008 and 2009, organizations must radically re-engineer their processes, governance and disciplines to initiate and manage this transition as well as evaluate and manage external and off-premises delivery of applications.

“Market excitement over Web platforms, SaaS and other IT utility services will only intensify, and this will increase business buyers’ appetites for these new options and services,” said Ms. Genovese. “This period will see huge changes in all facets of the IT market including clients, providers, investors, business and IT professionals and consumers.”

Disruptor No. 4: Software Market Moves to Megavendors Supporting Large Ecosystems — Software megavendors have proven their impact and influence over customer spending across a range of markets. Megavendors seek to dominate enterprise architecture and the terms of integration in multivendor portfolios. Focused vendors must coexist with other applications and with enterprise architecture. As the transformation to SOA for packaged applications and the exposing and manipulation of process metadata become minimum requirements for the next generation, it is megavendors that will have the resources, and focused vendors that will have the incentive. However, focused, best-of-breed vendors face a long time before a next generation of open, composite applications drives the market and opens it to a wider range of vendors.

“We see rapidly changing technology in an industry that seems to be maturing. Vendors are focusing more on the ‘business of software’ rather than solely on product competition. Users faced with increased vendor power and lower price flexibility are looking for alternatives, containment strategies and ways to lower vendor switch costs. How the vendors react to these changes and pressures will be the basis for changes in their competition over the next five years,” said Ms. Genovese.

Additional comments from Ms. Genovese are available on the Gartner YouTube channel at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1WmjzeLjBQ. Additional videos are available at http://www.youtube.com/gartnervideo.

Follow news, photos and video coming from Symposium/ITxpo on FriendFeed at http://friendfeed.com/rooms/gartner and on Twitter at http://twitter.com/Gartner_inc.

About Gartner Symposium/ITxpo
Gartner Symposium/ITxpo is the IT industry’s largest and most-strategic conference, providing business leaders with a look at the future of IT. Nearly 6,000 senior business and IT strategists will gather for the insights, tools and solutions they need to ensure their IT initiatives are key contributors to and drivers of their enterprise’s success. Gartner’s annual Symposium/ITxpo events are key components of attendees’ annual planning efforts. They rely on Gartner Symposium/ITxpo to gain insight into how their organizations can use IT to address business challenges and improve operational efficiency. Additional information is available at www.gartner.com/symposium/us.

iBrain (iCérebro)

“iBrain: Surviving the Technological Alteration of the Modern Mind (iCérebro: Sobrevivendo à Alteração Tecnológica da Mente Moderna)

Eis aí um título provocativo para um livro de natureza técnica, mas ao mesmo tempo escrito para os não-técnicos.  Trata-se de um livro que vai dar muito o que falar!  Foi escrito pelo médico Gary Small, que é Diretor do Memory & Aging Research Center do Semel Institute for Neuroscience & Human Behaviour e do Center on Aging da Universidade da Califórnia, em Los Angeles, EUA, e por sua esposa, a escritora Gigi Vorgan.

A apresentação do livro segue o seguinte roteiro:

“Seus insigths (sacadas) são extraordinários, seus comportamentos incomuns. Seus cérebros – moldados pela era dos microprocessadores, acesso à informação ilimitada, e 24 horas de notícias e comunicações – estão re-mapeando, re-instrumentalizando, e evoluindo. Eles não são super-homens. Eles são seus co-trabalhadores de vinte e poucos anos, suas crianças, e seus competidores. Você está acompanhando?”

Esta é a introdução à newsletter da Creativante desta semana, que você pode acessar aqui!

The cost of First Click Free (O custo de Primeiro Click Grátis, do Google)

Um interessante post de Nicholas Carr hoje em seu blog!
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The cost of First Click Free
October 20, 2008
The web you see when you go through Google’s search engine is no longer the web you see when you don’t go through Google’s search engine.

In a note on my previous post, The Centripetal Web, Seth Finkelstein points to Philipp Lenssen’s discussion of a new Google service, called First Click Free, that the company unveiled on Friday. First Click Free allows publishers that restrict access to their sites (to paying or registered customers) to give privileged access to visitors who arrive via a Google search. In essence, if you click on a Google search result you’ll see the entire page of content (your first click is free) and you will only come up against the pay wall or registration screen if you try to look at a second page on the site. As Google explains:

First Click Free is designed to protect your content while allowing you to include it Google’s search index. To implement First Click Free, you must allow all users who find your page through Google search to see the full text of the document that the user found in Google’s search results and that Google’s crawler found on the web without requiring them to register or subscribe to see that content. The user’s first click to your content is free and does not require logging in. You may, however, block the user with a login or payment or registration request when he tries to click away from that page to another section of your content site …

To include your restricted content in Google’s search index, our crawler needs to be able to access that content on your site. Keep in mind that Googlebot cannot access pages behind registration or login forms. You need to configure your website to serve the full text of each document when the request is identified as coming from Googlebot via the user-agent and IP-address. [emphasis added]

Now this is a helluva good business idea. (Google News has had a similar program in place for a while for newspaper sites, I believe.) It’s good news both for publishers (who get an easy way to provide teaser content to potential customers) and for surfers (who get access to stuff that used to be blocked). But, as Lenssen points out, it marks a fairly profound change in the role that Google’s search engine plays and, more generally, in the organization of the web:

There once was a time when Google search tried to be a neutral bystander, watching the web without getting too actively involved. There once was a time when Google instructed webmasters to serve their Googlebot the same thing served to a site’s human users. Now, Google is officially telling webmasters they can serve one thing to people coming from Google web search, and another thing to people coming from elsewhere … Google’s organic results thus become not any view onto the web, but a special one. You may prefer this view – when using Google you’re being treated as a VIP, after all! – or dislike it. And it might force you to rely on Google even more than before if some publishers start creating one free website for Google users, and another free one for second-class web citizens.

Efforts splicing up the web into vendor specific zones aren’t new, though the technologies and specific approaches involved vary greatly. In the 1990s, “Best Viewed with Netscape” or “Optimized for Internet Explorer” style buttons sprung up, and browser makers were working hard to deliver their users a “special” web with proprietary tags and more. Many of us had strong dislikes for such initiatives because it felt too much like a lock-in: the web seems to fare better when it works on cross-vendor standards, not being optimized for this or that tool or – partly self-interested – corporation.

At the very least, First Click Free provides another boost to the web’s centripetal force, as Google further strengthens the advantage that its dominance of search provides. Google doesn’t like to think of itself as locking in users to its search engine, but if you get a privileged view of the web when you go through Google, isn’t that, as Lenssen suggests, a subtle form of lock-in? Isn’t Google’s web just a little bit better than the traditional unmediated web?